Dal Strict Analyst Verdict
DAL Strict Analyst Verdict — I-4 Corridor Industrial Absorption
Re-run under: Data Authority Layer (src/hif/data-authority-layer.ts), Strict Analyst Mode Date: June 24, 2026 Status: This document governs and supersedes the numeric framing in market-absorption-report.md.
1. DAL trace (deterministic)
Routed the original request through the HIF → DAL pipeline:
| Stage | Function | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Purpose extraction | extractPurposeHeuristic | ["Calculate"] (signals: calculate, total) |
| HIF→DAL bridge | HIF_PURPOSE_TO_DAL | Calculate → Compute |
| Domain classification | classifyDomain | real-estate (matched vacancy) |
| Activation | shouldActivateDAL("Compute","real-estate") | true |
| Source map | getSourceMap("real-estate") | see §2 |
| Computability | computeDALStatus | requiresProprietary: true |
Engine verbatim output (generateStrictAnalystOutput):
computableSummary: From public authoritative sources (county assessor, clerk & recorder, zoning maps, state GIS) we can compute structural metrics for real-estate.
notComputableSummary: The following required datasets are proprietary or non-existent: MLS, CoStar, brokerage vacancy datasets, complete off-market vacancy, shadow vacancy by tenant.
interpretation: True values for this request cannot be computed from public data alone. Strict Analyst Mode prohibits estimation or guessing.
2. Source authority map (real-estate)
| Tier | Sources | Usable for a "true" value? |
|---|---|---|
| Public authoritative | county assessor, clerk & recorder, zoning maps, state GIS | Yes — structural/stock facts only |
| Proprietary | MLS, CoStar, brokerage vacancy datasets | No — not independently verifiable; license-gated |
| Non-existent | complete off-market vacancy, shadow vacancy by tenant | No — does not exist at any price |
3. Per-metric computability ruling
Your six requested breakdowns, ruled against the source map:
| Requested metric | Ruling | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Net absorption | ❌ Not computable from public data | Requires building-by-building *occupied-SF* tracking over time → proprietary (CoStar / brokerage vacancy datasets). |
| Total inventory | ⚠️ Partially computable | Built SF / parcel stock is derivable from county assessor + state GIS (public, structural). Leasable-SF and class segmentation align to proprietary definitions. |
| Vacancy change | ❌ Not computable from public data | Vacancy is an occupancy state, not recorded in public records; off-market & shadow vacancy are non-existent publicly. |
| New deliveries | ⚠️ Partially computable | Completions inferrable from public building permits / certificates of occupancy (public-records). Submarket leasable-SF attribution needs proprietary data. |
| Under-construction pipeline | ⚠️ Partially computable | Active permits are public; full spec-vs-BTS, pre-lease %, and SF detail are proprietary. |
| Tenant move-ins vs move-outs | ❌ Not computable from public data | Tenant-level occupancy is proprietary; "shadow vacancy by tenant" is explicitly a non-existent public dataset. |
Net ruling: The request as posed ("true absorption rate ... by net absorption, vacancy change, tenant move-ins vs move-outs") cannot be answered from public authoritative data alone. Strict Analyst Mode therefore returns no computed figures and prohibits estimation.
4. Relationship to the first-run report
market-absorption-report.md (first run) presented Q1 2026 figures from C&W, Newmark, CBRE, JLL, Savills, Avison Young, Lee & Associates, and Matthews. Under the DAL those are proprietary-derived third-party publications — they sit in the "proprietary (brokerage vacancy datasets)" tier. They are useful *indications* and are retained for reference, but Strict Analyst Mode does not certify them as computable "true" values, and the cross-firm spread documented there (e.g., Polk County +244,531 SF / 5.8% per C&W vs −147,660 SF / 9.4% per Newmark) is direct evidence of why.
5. What a compliant "true" answer requires
To lift any ❌ above into a computable result, supply one of:
- A licensed proprietary feed — CoStar, CompStak, or a single brokerage's underlying dataset (not the published PDF) for the I-4 submarkets, on one methodology, trailing 12 months.
- A public-records build — county/municipal permit + certificate-of-occupancy pulls (Hillsborough, Polk, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Lake) for deliveries and pipeline, plus assessor/GIS for inventory. This yields *structural* metrics only; it still cannot produce occupancy-based net absorption or tenant move-in/out.
Net absorption, vacancy change, and tenant move-ins/outs remain occupancy-dependent and are not obtainable from option 2 — they require option 1.